Luck and Variance in Gambling

Luck seems to be one of the most used - and abused - word in the English dictionary. When gamblers lose, they blame it on bad luck. But when they win, they claim to be gambling gods and refuse to place it on luck. Should you rely on luck to win at the casinos?

Whether you believe in luck or not, it doesn't really matter because luck is something you can't change consciously or willfully. Luck comes to you at the least expected time. Many gamblers attest that wishing for good luck doesn't always guarantee a win, because good luck is as elusive as that hoped-for lottery jackpot.

Mathematics has a fascinating way to explain the existence of good and bad luck. Mathematicians call it "variance." For example, out of 100 flips of the coin, 50 flips will turn out to be heads and 50 will give tails. Variance dictates that in a given number of flips (10 flips for example), the amount of heads versus tails will not be necessarily equal. So for any 10 flips, the result might be 7 heads and 3 tails. This is called positive variance.

Because of the positive variance, gamblers have a chance to win in any game of chance, provided that they hit the periods of positive variance. In the long run, the odds will even out so the gambler will lose money because of the house edge. But if you play in the short term, you can make a nice profit from gambling.

Nobody knows for sure when the positive variance will be in your favor, so it will be a matter of timing and being at the right place at the right time. If you hit the periods of positive variance, you will win and you can consider yourself lucky!

Games that require luck to win such as roulette and slots are perfect examples of the use of the positive variance. You don't need any skill or strategy, just luck to win in these games. But you still continue to play in these games because you hope for good luck, or positive variance, to come to you.

If all casino games are based on pure mathematics, nobody will play because the casinos will always win due to the house edge. But because of positive variance and fluctuations, it is possible for you to obtain short-term wins. However, the casino will still make profits because the odds will even out in the long run.

Does this mean that you should throw all those gambling strategies and systems out the window? Of course not. Strategy is very crucial in games like poker and blackjack, but it is silly to rely on luck alone to win in gambling when you can improve your chances of winning through correct strategies.

So don't worry about luck and just play your best every time you gamble. Think positively, concentrate on the game and good luck will come to you when you least expect it.